[Episode #242] – IEA Outlook 2025

The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder

What important trends are shaping the energy transition today? And what is the outlook for oil and gas demand?

In this conversation, Tim Gould of the International Energy Agency (IEA) returns to discuss key insights from the agency’s flagship annual report, the World Energy Outlook 2024. We consider the enormous implications of IEA’s view that global demand for all fossil fuels will peak and begin a slow decline within the next five years. To explore this, we take a closer look at the state of the oil and gas industry, comparing its expectations to what climate science and energy system modeling tell us about the future of fossil fuels. We also consider how the energy transition could reduce overall demand for fossil fuels, creating excess supply imbalances that reshape global markets and trade geopolitics.

Our discussion also touches on the IEA’s forecast that low-emission electricity sources like solar, wind, and nuclear will account for more than half of global power generation before 2030. Further, we explore the rising energy demand from data centers, shifting expectations for hydrogen, and the investments needed to keep clean energy growing at a pace that meets our climate targets.