Macro Mondays | LIVE | OIL PRICE DOWN FROM ISRAEL-IRAN ATTACK | 28|10|24

World of Oil Derivatives

Join us LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd for Macro Mondays.
On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. Oil prices have seen a significant drop off following Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian defense systems.
The US 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.25%, marking the housing market’s most unaffordable level since the mid-1980s. This coincides with bonds now offering higher yields than stocks, a rarity not seen in 22 years.
James and James dive into the complexities of the US election, exploring the potential economic impacts of a "Trump trade" scenario. Betting markets suggest a 62% chance of Trump winning, which could lead to increased tariffs and reduced Fed independence, driving inflation upwards to as much as 9.3% by 2026 (according to projections from the Peterson Institute for International Economics). We'll keep a close eye on these developments as we near election week.
The Eurozone, meanwhile, is facing weak manufacturing and service PMIs - especially in France and Germany. Dovish comments from ECB officials underscore concerns over stagnation in the German economy, with hints at future rate cuts. In Asia, Japan’s ruling party has lost its majority, and the IMF anticipates that the Bank of Japan will gradually raise rates, while China deals with record local debt defaults amid demographic challenges and trade uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs.
The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market.