Oregon’s new state economist on kicker tax rebates, state employment and economic outlook

Think Out Loud

This week, Oregon’s new state economist, Carl Riccadonna, gave his first quarterly economic and revenue forecast. It projected Oregon getting nearly $950 million more in the current two-year period than previously estimated, and an extra $1.3 billion in the 2025-2027 budget cycle. Riccadonna, who was hired in September, based his forecast on an economic model that’s less pessimistic than the one his predecessor, Mark McMullen, relied on. It not only projects higher revenues from personal income and corporate taxes, it also aims to reduce the errors in forecasting that led to large kicker tax refunds, including a record $5.6 billion paid out to taxpayers this year. Riccadonna talks to us about Oregon’s economic outlook.