9/24 - Tuesday

The Buresh Daily Discussion

Tropical disturbance getting better organized in the Western Caribbean Sea, Local Impacts Wednesday night into Thursday • Thunderstorms have increased around the center of the tropical disturbance overnight. • A tropical storm will likely form this morning or later today in the Western Caribbean Sea. • Forecasts currently develop this into a "major" hurricane on approach to the northeast Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon/evening. Conditions are favorable for strengthening. • As of now, the favored area for a potential landfall would be in between Apalachicola and Cedar Key late Thursday. Shifts are possible and impacts will occur far from the landfall point, especially east of it. • The wind field with this hurricane will be expansive. Do not focus just on the center. • A track closer to, or even east of, Cedar Key would heighten our local impacts. A track closer to Apalachicola would lessen them quite dramatically. • Based on the current forecast: o Late Wednesday: We can expect rain bands to lift across our area in the late afternoon through the night. They’ll contain quick-hitting heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes/waterspouts. o Into Thursday: Rain and wind impacts would increase the farther west one goes, currently expected to be most significant between Lake City and Waycross. Hurricane conditions will be possible there, with intermittent tropical storm conditions possible elsewhere. Saturated grounds from early September rain may make older trees more susceptible to falling. o Very hazardous beach conditions are expected, with high surf, rip currents, and likely some beach erosion, especially during the higher-than-normal king tides. o Minor to moderate flooding expected Thursday evening and Friday morning along the St. Johns River, its tributaries, and coastal areas prone to flooding. o Into Friday mid-day Friday: Conditions area-wide should quickly improve as the storm pulls inland, perhaps causing significant damage as far north as Atlanta. o Wind speeds, surge height and rain totals are highly dependent on the exact track of "Helene." o Sustained winds could be at or near tropical storm force at our local beaches Thursday afternoon/evening, especially in gusts. o Wind gusts will be 50-70+ mph with the current forecast. Higher gusts are likely closer to I-75 and offshore from the NE Florida coastline. o At least some storm surge is likely along the NE Florida coastline with the onshore winds. • Tropical storm watches are in effect for SW Florida and the Keys. • Expect hurricane and storm surge watches to be extended north to include parts of the Central and NE Gulf Coast this morning. • Latest “Talking the Tropics with Mike”, updated daily. Reminder for the newsroom: • Full updates with a new track are at 5 AM / 11 AM / 5 PM / 11 PM • Intensity and position updates (no new track) are at 2 AM / 8 AM / 2 PM / 8 PM. TODAY: Mostly sunny. HIGH: 91 TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low: 72 WEDNESDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy and breezy. Showers late. 72/88 THURSDAY: First Alert Weather Day: Tracking the tropics. Cloudy and humid with rain and wind. Isolated tornadoes possible. 75/85 FRIDAY: Helene moving quickly north. Decreasing clouds with a few showers/storms. 75/88 SATURDAY: Partly sunny with a few showers/storms. 75/89 SUNDAY: Partly sunny with a few showers/storms. 75/86 MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers/storms. 73/86