Predicting Our Climate Future: What We Do, Don’t and Can’t Know

Climate Risk Podcast

Hear from Prof. David Stainforth of LSE’s Grantham Research Institute, as we explore the limitations of climate modelling and the implications for risk management.

There are some things in life that we can be virtually certain about: if one throws a ball into the air, it will fall back down. Similarly, scientists have evidence beyond reasonable doubt that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased a lot in the recent past. But there are quite a lot of things that we don’t know with any confidence, giving rise to significant uncertainty when we try to forecast those things.

That’s why in today’s episode, we’ll be exploring why climate change is particularly hard to model and predict. We’ll discuss:

- The different types of modelling and models used for forecasting, and their relative strengths and limitations,

- The benefits of adopting a more multi-disciplinary approach to understanding and tackling climate change,

- And the critical need for science to examine climate change more through the lens of risk management.

To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr

For more information on climate risk, visit GARP’s Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate

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Speaker’s Bio

Prof. David Stainforth, Professorial Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute, LSE

Dave Stainforth is Professorial Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and an Honorary Professor in the Physics Department at the University of Warwick.

Dave carries out research on climate science and its relationship with climate economics and policy. He focuses particularly on uncertainty analysis and on how academic assessments can better support decision-making in the context of climate change. His new book, Predicting Our Climate Future, has recently been published, and is the focus of today’s discussion.