Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets, the Future of Civilization, and Polymathy — #66

Manifold

Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He has worked in a variety of fields, including Physics, AI, Economics, and Futurism.

Follow him at https://x.com/robinhanson

"When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'Eh, maybe.' Then I forget about it. When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is 'No way! Impossible!' Then I think about it for years." -- Prof. Bryan Caplan, GMU

0:00 Introduction

00:34 Welcome and Manifest conference introduction

03:12 Robin Hanson: Education and Early Influences

08:38 Transition from Physics+AI to Social Science and Economics

22:02 Prediction Markets: Potential and Challenges

28:37 Cultural Drift and Challenges to Modern Society

40:49 Fertility and Demography

48:37 Life as a Polymath

59:27 Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation Question

01:09:29 Audience Q&A

Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [e-mail] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.