Brazil Drought + Canada/China/Canola/EVs

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Here’s the latest market update:
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Drought:
Concerns Growing: The drought in Brazil is intensifying. StoneX has kept its soybean crop estimate at 165 million metric tons (MMT), while the USDA projects 169 MMT. Planting is challenging due to dry weather, with no rain forecasted for most of Brazil in the next 10 days. The Nov24 soybean contract gained 12 cents per bushel on Tuesday. See maps below.
🌾 China's Antidumping Investigation:
Canola Imports Under Scrutiny: China plans to investigate Canadian canola imports, citing dumping concerns. This move follows Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and steel/aluminum. China imports over 90% of its canola from Canada. North American canola futures fell their daily limit of $45 on Tuesday, the largest one-day drop since August 2022.
🌾 US Crop Conditions:
Corn: US corn conditions held steady at 65% good to excellent, matching trade expectations and the best for this week since 2018. 19% of the crop is mature.
Soybeans: Soybean conditions fell to 65% good to excellent, slightly below expectations but still the best since 2020. 13% of the crop is dropping leaves.
🌾 US Spring Wheat Harvest:
Progressing: The US spring wheat harvest is 70% complete, matching the average but slightly ahead of projections. Winter wheat planting is underway, with 2% planted.
🌾 Argentina Rainfall:
Beneficial for Corn: Recent rains in Argentina are expected to aid corn planting. The Rosario Grains Exchange anticipates corn production at 49 MMT, with farmers potentially planting more corn acres than previously expected due to recent moisture.
🌾 US Grain Shipments:
Strong Shipments:
Corn: 965,292 metric tons (38 million bushels) inspected for export, +5.2% from the previous week and +100% from last year.
Soybeans: 496,860 metric tons (18 million bushels) inspected, up 18% from the prior week and 22% from last year.
Wheat: 577,944 metric tons (21 million bushels) inspected, +5.2% from the previous week and +82% from last year.
🌾 Flash Sale:
Soybeans: 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year, matching a previous flash sale.
🌾 US Oil Prices:
Plunge: WTI crude fell 4.4% to $70.34 per barrel, its lowest close since December. The decline is partly due to potential increased Libyan oil production and weaker manufacturing activity in China and the US. Oil prices are also under pressure as OPEC+ plans to boost output by over 1.4 million barrels per day starting in October.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could significantly influence market dynamics and strategies! 🌾📉🛢️