Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing

Forward Guidance

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Why There Was No Recession In 2023

(03:00) It Remains My Base Case That We Avoid A Recession

(05:01) Market Often Pays Too Much Attention To Individual Data Points

(10:39) Overview Of Sahm Rule And The Labor Market: "Once The Fed Starts To See A Modest Amount Of Weakening In The Labor Market, It's Probably Too Late"

(12:36) Sahm: I'm More Worried That The Fed Breaks Something In Financial Markets, I'm Less Worried About The Labor Market

(15:04) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Its Issues Likely To Be "A Slow Burn"

(16:57) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Was "Bread and Butter" For Fed

(20:54) The Sahm Rule Hasn't Been Triggered Yet - But How Close Are We?

(23:31) Notion Of 'Technical Recession' (2 Quarters of QoQ Real GDP Decline) Totally Failed

(25:59) VanEck Ad

(26:46) Labor Market

(29:45) JOLTS Can Be A "Problematic" Measure To Interpret

(36:12) Never Bet Against The American Consumer

(40:27) The Housing Market

(41:51) The Fed Should Never Be Buying Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Again

(49:35) Neutral Policy Rate

(55:51) If/When The Fed Cuts Interest Rates, It Will Be Orderly (Unless There Is A Crisis)

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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