Are We Reading Polls Wrong? Expert Explains The Smarter Way.

Beyond Politics

Το περιεχόμενο παρέχεται από το Matt Robison and Paul Hodes, Matt Robison, and Paul Hodes. Όλο το περιεχόμενο podcast, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των επεισοδίων, των γραφικών και των περιγραφών podcast, μεταφορτώνεται και παρέχεται απευθείας από τον Matt Robison and Paul Hodes, Matt Robison, and Paul Hodes ή τον συνεργάτη της πλατφόρμας podcast. Εάν πιστεύετε ότι κάποιος χρησιμοποιεί το έργο σας που προστατεύεται από πνευματικά δικαιώματα χωρίς την άδειά σας, μπορείτε να ακολουθήσετε τη διαδικασία που περιγράφεται εδώ https://el.player.fm/legal.

6d ago 42:36

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What if I told you that we're looking at polling numbers in the wrong way? We're all inundated with polling right now as we enter the final three weeks of the 2024 election, and we're used to looking at those polls with one question in mind. Who's ahead? But today's guest says we shouldn't be looking at the margin. We should be looking at the share of the vote that each candidate is getting. And that tells us a LOT more about what's going to happen in the election. Our guest is Nate Moore, a public opinion expert who writes for the American Enterprise Institute and the Liberal Patriot. 00:59 The Importance of Vote Share 04:20 Current Polling Trends and Predictions 09:16 The Pennsylvania Problem 16:11 The Blue Shift Phenomenon 19:40 Polling Methodologies and Their Impact 26:33 Impact of Mark Robinson Scandal 29:21 The Butterfly Effect in Elections 32:26 Electoral System and Party Dynamics 38:36 Key Races to Watch 40:42 Election Night Indicators

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