Christian Ruhl on why we're entering a new nuclear age — and how to reduce the risks

80k After Hours

"We really, really want to make sure that nuclear war never breaks out. But we also know — from all of the examples of the Cold War, all these close calls — that it very well could, as long as there are nuclear weapons in the world. So if it does, we want to have some ways of preventing that from turning into a civilisation-threatening, cataclysmic kind of war. And those kinds of interventions — war limitation, intrawar escalation management, civil defence — those are kind of the seatbelts and airbags of the nuclear world. So to borrow a phrase from one of my colleagues, right-of-boom is a class of interventions for when “shit hits the fan.” —Christian Ruhl

In this episode of 80k After Hours, Luisa Rodriguez and Christian Ruhl discuss underrated best bets to avert civilisational collapse from global catastrophic risks — things like great power war, frontier military technologies, and nuclear winter.

Links to learn more, summary, and full transcript.

They cover:

• How the geopolitical situation has changed in recent years into a “three-body problem” between the US, Russia, and China.
• How adding AI-enabled technologies into the mix makes things even more unstable and unpredictable.
• Why Christian recommends many philanthropists focus on “right-of-boom” interventions — those that mitigate the damage after a catastrophe — over traditional preventative measures.
• Concrete things policymakers should be considering to reduce the devastating effects of unthinkable tragedies.
• And on a more personal note, Christian’s experience of having a stutter.

Who this episode is for:

• People interested in the most cost-effective ways to prevent nuclear war, such as:
  • Deescalating after accidental nuclear use.
  • Civil defence and war termination.
  • Mitigating nuclear winter.

Who this episode isn’t for:

• People interested in the least cost-effective ways to prevent nuclear war, such as:
  • Coating every nuclear weapon on Earth in solid gold so they’re no longer functional.
  • Creating a TV show called The Real Housewives of Nuclear Winter about the personal and professional lives of women in Beverly Hills after a nuclear holocaust.
  • A multibillion dollar programme to invent a laser beam that could write permanent messages on the Moon, and using it just once to spell out #nonukesnovember.

Chapters:

• The three-body problem (00:04:11)
• Effect of AI (00:07:58)
• What we have going for us, and not (00:13:32)
• Right-of-boom interventions (00:17:50)
• Deescalating after accidental nuclear use (00:24:23)
• Civil defence and war termination (00:30:40)
• Mitigating nuclear winter (00:37:07)
• Planning for a postwar political environment (00:40:19)
• Experience of having a stutter (00:53:52)
• Christian’s archaeological excavation in Guatemala (01:09:51)

Producer: Keiran Harris
Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell
Technical editing: Ben Cordell and Milo McGuire
Content editing: Katy Moore, Luisa Rodriguez, and Keiran Harris
Transcriptions: Katy Moore

“Gershwin – Rhapsody in Blue, original 1924 version” by Jason Weinberger is licensed under creative commons