Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Global Economic & Markets Research team will cover off on the latest market and economic news and dive deep into the big issues impacting the Australian and global economy. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.
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In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the consumer price index in the US, the Chinese economic data dump for August, and the European central bank’s monetary policy announcement. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to r…
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This week Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the June quarter GDP data. A soft result overall with growth of just 0.2% for the quarter and just 1% for the year. Weak consumption, strong public demand are discussed as well as the latest on household incomes, savings and productivity growth. A quiet week ahead locally with survey data out and …
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This week Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird deep dive into the July CPI data as well as the upcoming June quarter GDP data. Stephen notes disinflation broadened in July, beyond the electricity rebates. July retail trade was soft given the start of income tax cuts. While Gareth discuss the June quarter GDP print which should show continued m…
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In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets: Australian GDP data, a series of US labour market reports and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Researc…
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Electrifying Australian cars have involved the uptake of various low-emission technologies ranging from hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down t…
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In this week’s episode, Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso discuss the top four influences affecting currency markets: Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, the US personal consumption expenditures inflation report, the Australian monthly CPI indicator for July, and European consumer price index for August. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ …
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This week, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu discuss the RBA minutes released last week and look ahead to a busy week for Australian economic data. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.…
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We discuss the top four influences on currency markets this week, including a speech by FOMC Chair at Jackson Hole, the minutes of the RBA’s August meeting, Japan’s consumer price index and European wages. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimer…
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In this week’s podcast, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley talk through last weeks labour force survey and why despite strong employment outcomes, the unemployment rate continues to rise. They also discuss the impact a loosening labour market is having on wages growth and preview the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out tomorrow. ------ DISCLAIMER …
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The first look at household spending in July showed no change according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. The index was flat in seasonally adjusted terms, with annual growth sitting at 4.5% in original terms. Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in the latest podcast and note…
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It was a big week with the RBA August Board Meeting and a hawkish tone in the statement and the press conference. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist deep dive into the meeting as well as the forecast updates in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The week ahead is also busy with the release of July employmen…
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In this week’s episode we discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the US CPI, Australian employment and wages, and UK employment and CPI. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankr…
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This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the key influences on currency markets, including rising concerns of a US recession, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s impending interest rate decision, and New Zealand’s key employment data. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economi…
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Finally the Q2 24 CPI printed last week. A softer than expected CPI print removed the chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu wrap up the data as well as preview the RBA meeting which should be a low key affair. We stick to our base case that an easing cycle can commence in November 202…
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This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings this week, that could influence the Australian dollar. They also discuss the upcoming Australian CPI, which is widely regarded to make or break the case for an Reserve Bank of Australian interest rate hike next week. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening…
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The long awaited Q2 24 CPI will be out Wednesday this week. How inflation prints will make or break the case for the RBA to increase interest rates at the August Board Meeting. In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley chat through why the CBA house view remains that a further interest rate rise will not be required…
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This week Joseph Capurso and John Oh sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the recent announcement of President Biden stepping down from the elections, upcoming data releases in the US and Europe. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are a…
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In this podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s June labour force survey and March quarter building activity data. Despite rising unemployment, the labour force report does not stand in the way of a rate hike of the Q2 24 inflation data is sufficiently strong. Current and future residential building activity remains cons…
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FX Weekly – Attempted assassination of President Trump, China’s Third Plenum, Bank of England policy outlook
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This week Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the assassination attempt on President Trump, the Third Plenum in China, New Zealand and the UK CPIs. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read th…
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Last week was quiet with three private sector surveys on the soft side and the release of the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for June. Harry Ottley, Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talk through this data as well as preview the all important June labour market data this week. The outcome of the labour market data could have …
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The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 0.6%/mth in June with the gains driven by Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods. Only partly offsetting these gains were falls in Transport, Education, Household goods and Utilities. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into details as well as …
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Carol Kong (Economist and FX strategist) and Kristina Clifton (Senior international economist and FX strategist) discuss the outcome of the French parliamentary election and implications for EUR/USD. They preview the US June CPI and FOMC Chair Jay Powell’s testimony which will likely be the main drivers of currencies this week. They also run throug…
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On this weeks podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) discuss last week’s RBA minutes and retail trade numbers. They also outline our updated home price forecasts and preview a quieter week ahead. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Rese…
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Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, joins John Oh, Sustainable Economist to discuss potential changes to Australia-Europe ties. In the episode, they find that the competition between the west and China in ‘green technology’ may encourage greater trade and investment between Australia, the European Union and the United K…
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In the weekly Global Economic and Markets Research podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist joins Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. They recap the stronger than expected May CPI Indicator and what it means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Stephen has just returned from the US and shares his thoughts on the US economy, politics ahead of the US e…
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Whilst electricity prices look to have settled in the coming 2024/25 financial year, further electricity rises look to be a credible risk. However, there are several options available for small businesses to reduce their exposure to volatile electricity prices. To discuss these options, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Dennis Voznesenski, Agricul…
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In this podcast, Economist Stephen Wu and Head of Australian Economics Gareth Aird sit down to discuss last week’s RBA Board meeting and the upcoming inflation data. Despite some tweaks to the post-meeting Statement, the RBA’s messaging remains the same: they are data dependent and will wait and see what the inflation data says. The CPI indicator o…
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In this podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) from the Aussie economics team review last week’s May labour force survey and preview the June RBA Board meeting. Last week, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in the last major economic data release before this week’s RBA Board meeting. Despite the fall in the unemploym…
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The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 1.1%/mth in May in what has been a choppy few months for the index. Annual growth now sits at 4.3%/yr. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, and Harry Ottley Economist discuss the results from May and how looking through the volatility in recent months paints a subdued environment f…
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In this weeks podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird break down the soft Q1 24 GDP figures from last week and preview the critical May labour force survey that is due on Thursday. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEM…
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The Australian economic data flow over the past week has highlighted three key themes. Soft retail sales data reinforced a weak household sector. A stronger than expected monthly CPI print led to questions over the stickiness of inflation. While capex data reinforced the positive contribution that investment is making in the economy. In this podcas…
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In this Podcast, Economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss last week’s RBA Minutes and consumer sentiment data and preview a busy week ahead. The data flow this week is headlined by the April monthly CPI indicator and retail trade figures. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are ad…
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Last week was action packed for the Aussie economy. In this week’s podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley sit down to break it all down. They discuss the major takeaways from the 2024/25 Federal Budget and review the softer data on wages and the labour market from last week. They then briefly preview a much quieter upcoming week with the R…
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The 2024/25 Federal Budget was handed down on 14 May 2024. After two consecutive surpluses, a larger than expected profile of budget deficits are forecast for 2024/25 and the years ahead as the Federal government lifts spending on new initiatives while previous revenue gains from a stronger than anticipated economy dry up. In the podcast Belinda Al…
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The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) fell by 1% in April and annual growth also softened, down to just 2.6%, from 3.9%/yr in March. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the April results and the new additions to the HSI this month. For April, Food & beverage goods, Hospitality, R…
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In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen sits down with Economist Stephen Wu to discuss a busy last week for the Australian economy and financial markets. They cover last week’s May RBA Board Meeting and the fall in retail trade volumes. They also preview an important week ahead with wages and labour force data due, and the 2024/25 Federal B…
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In this edition of the podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the subdued results of the March CommBank Household Spending Insights series. An early Easter boosted Food & beverage goods spending and higher petrol prices boosted Transport spending. Recreation and Household goods spending was weak. The…
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Sustainable - New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES): A change for the light vehicle market?
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Media coverage in the past month have highlighted diverging views towards the Government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES). The NVES will, for the first time in Australia’s history, set tailpipe emission targets for new light vehicles sold in Australia. Indeed, the NVES will send a strong signal that Australia will prioritise low-emissions v…
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Introduction to mandatory climate reporting in Australia could mean large businesses would need to estimate and report scope 3 emissions. What are scope 3 emissions? And how do they differ by industry? To answer these questions, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics sit down to discuss th…
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February 2024 showed further evidence of a slowdown in consumer spending according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. A fall of 0.3%/mth occurred in February, with the peak in the index occurring in November 2023. There was evidence of a Taylor Swift, and other musical acts induced lift in spending with parts of Recreation and Hosp…
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The CommBank Household Spending Insights shows a solid lift of 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms over January 2024. The last three months of spending has been volatile, due to shifting summer spending patterns. Overall though the HSI shows spending running at 3.6%/yr, which when taking into account inflation and population growth suggests spending …
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In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong from the International and Sustainable Economics team discuss our updated outlook for the major economies and their central banks. We now predict the FOMC will pull off a ‘soft landing’ in the US economy. Japan, Canada, the Eurozone and the UK will skirt close to recession in 202…
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In our latest podcast the Australian Economics team run through a detailed outlook for the Australian economy over 2024. Gareth Aird, Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss GDP, the RBA, inflation, wages, the labour market, home prices, investment and housing construction. We expect GDP growth to run below trend in 2024 and for the unem…
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The November edition of the CommBank Household Spending Insights shows a solid lift of 1.8% in seasonally adjusted terms. The impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotional activities can be seen through the data with a lift in the Retail category of 3.5% in the month and a 9.3% lift in Household goods. In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick…
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In our latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist discuss some of the opportunities and challenges for electric vehicle charging in Australia. The build out of electric vehicle charging looks different within and outside the major capital cities. Inside the major cit…
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In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the October edition of the CommBank Household Spending Insights report. The October results showed a fall of 1.0% in the month and annual growth sitting at 2.0%/yr. Weakness in Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods led the falls. While…
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The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) index for September 2023 rose by 0.5%/mth in seasonally adjusted terms, to 137.4. This was the same monthly increase as the revised outcome for August. Gains in September were led by Hospitality (fast food and restaurants), Food & beverage goods (liquor stores), Transport (higher fuel prices) and Educa…
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In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the revamped CommBank Household Spending Insights report. The data is now seasonally adjusted and weighted to the ABS census. For August, the Commbank HSI rose by 0.7%/mth to 137.0pts. Gains in August were led by Education (surge in international student…
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In this podcast, we discuss the RBA’s most recent cash rate decision and the latest economic growth figures. The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.1% at their September Board meeting. This was the third consecutive on-hold decision, although the RBA continued to retain a tightening bias. The RBA seem comfortable that interest rate hikes are wor…
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The Chinese economy is weak and the government’s policy response has been underwhelming. Despite its reluctance, the government may be forced to unveil a large economic stimulus package in coming months to aid the economy. In this podcast, we discuss some of the key considerations in China’s fiscal and monetary policy debate. We also discuss our up…
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