Demanding investment in the grid and generation US electricity demand growth in 2024 has run at a faster pace than GDP. This follows a decade in which demand hardly grew. And while data centers are an important driver of this recent growth, there are other, more important factors, namely building electrification. Reshoring and electric vehicles hav…

A ready-mix of positives for real estate Last month, BofA hosted its annual Global Real Estate conference with record client attendance. Jeff Spector suggests that while investors have been underweight real estate the last couple of years as rates rose, recent outperformance is beginning to draw investors into the group. The fall in rates make REIT…

Lower rates will drive home turnover and housing stocks Mortgage rates have dropped by more than 100bps since last fall and housing stocks have responded. But while lower rates should in theory be good for demand, signs of improvement are modest so far. Many buyers remain on the sidelines as they await a further drop in rates. On the supply side, t…

Construction spend strong on structural tailwinds Construction spending, excluding housing, is running at a rate of about $1-$1.2 billion annually, near record levels. Much of this spend is driven by recently passed legislative acts, according to Mike Feniger. But reshoring and AI are also having significant positive impact and the annualized capex…

GenAI: Coming Soon to a Sector Near You Alkesh Shah views Generative AI (GenAI) as the beginning of the third major tech cycle of the past 50 years. Over the past 10 years, development of more powerful chips and a new neural network architecture has raised the upper bounds of storage and computation exponentially, consequently reducing the time and…

Labor market remains key to consumption Discretionary services grew unusually quickly as the economy reopened and savings buffers were high. In 2023, spending received another boost in the form of the Social Security cost of living adjustment, which contributed to rapid 4% GDP growth in the second half of the year. But now, things are slowing to a …

A weakening relationship between nat gas and temps In the US, natural gas has struggled for nearly two years to cope with a storage surplus. Meanwhile, solar power generation has jumped to new highs. These are among the reasons that natural gas prices have languished despite growth in US electricity demand. And growth in solar capacity has weakened…

Value in Vegas has kept consumer demand resilient The number of people traveling by air in the US continues to make records, but some airlines have posted disappointing results. That's because pricing has been weak as airline capacity has grown faster than demand. Andrew Didora does expect that airline capacity growth will slow after the summer, ea…

Slam dunk for streaming media in acquiring NBA rights Earlier this month, Head of US Media and Entertainment Research Jessica Reif Ehrlich hosted her annual Media in Montauk conference. As is typical, discussions at the conference were most focused on long-term trends and strategy. Women's sports got a lot of focus, especially as the WNBA has seen …

Volume picture better for restaurants than packaged food Food companies are seeing negative volumes, both in their grocery businesses and their food service businesses. The volume picture looks a bit better for the largest restaurants but it's also sluggish. Consumers seem to be economizing more than they were a year or two ago, one way is by eatin…

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