Τα καλύτερα Week Ahead podcast (2024)

1
The year ahead - Caught in currents 34:46

3d ago34:46

34:46

For our final podcast of the year, we’ll review 2024 highlights and look ahead to 2025 using SBM’s The Year Ahead Report. Regarding the economy, we think that oil prices in 2025 will stay steady at $65-$75 per barrel. Nigeria’s oil production may fall short of its 2 million barrels/day target, hitting 1.8 million instead. We expect GDP to grow by 3…

1
The War In Ukraine In 2025 24:39

7d ago24:39

24:39

Sam Greene, professor at the King’s Russia Institute at King’s College London and director of democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine, including the prospects for a cease-fire in 2025 and the role that public opinion in Russia, Ukraine, and the West could p…

1
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy) 7:46

7d ago7:46

7:46

When testifying to the Senate Banking Committee back in 1987, the newly-appointed Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, provided some insight into his views on communication: “Since becoming a central banker”, he said, “I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” His successors h…

1
The Week Ahead – Going Out with a Bang 22:30

10d ago22:30

22:30

Year end is approaching fast, but we still have key central bank meetings and data to look out for next week. In the US, our focus will be on the Fed policy decision, and the latest core inflation and activity readings. In Europe, the Bank of England meets, and key labour market and inflation data will be released. Then it’s the latest from Asia, w…

1
K-legs 48:13

9d ago48:13

48:13

This week in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria fined Moniepoint and OPay ₦1 billion ($578,000) each in Q2 2024 for compliance violations, adding to its regulatory clampdown. Are these measures necessary for financial stability, or could they hinder fintech innovation? Meanwhile, the country recorded a ₦5.81 trillion trade surplus in Q3 2024, wit…

1
Initial Conditions 11:05

14d ago11:05

11:05

Many years ago, I worked for the Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis at the State of Michigan and, from time to time, Saul Hymans and his colleagues from the University of Michigan would visit the state government in Lansing to discuss the latest output from their macro economic models of the U.S. and Michigan economies. As they started into their p…

1
'The Idea Seemed Insane': Behind Putin's Invasion Of Ukraine 36:43

14d ago36:43

36:43

Lucian Kim, author of the new book Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine, joins the host to discuss Putin's growing resentment, Russia's imperialist legacy, the Kremlin's turn toward autocracy, and other factors behind the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.Από τον Steve Gutterman

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Ghana Decides: The road to Jubilee House 24:07

16d ago24:07

24:07

This week, it's all about Ghana. The country is preparing for Sunday's elections and is set to go to the polls to elect a new president. The political landscape is heating up as candidates gear up for a highly competitive race. Then, Ghana's Jubilee oil field production dropped to 89,000 barrels per day due to issues with the J69-P well and downtim…

1
The Week Ahead – Central Banks Take Center Stage 24:16

17d ago24:16

24:16

Starting next week we have monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. These along with a few key data releases set the tone for the week after which is promising to be a blockbuster week, when we have the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, plus a few central banks in Asia al…

1
Irish Lessons 8:44

21d ago8:44

8:44

This week will be full of market-moving economic data. We expect purchasing manager surveys and light-vehicle sales to indicate steady demand in November, as investors await Friday’s jobs report. Recent data on unemployment claims point to continued momentum and payroll growth should rebound from October’s meagre reading which was suppressed by bot…

1
Trigger-nometry 42:22

23d ago42:22

42:22

After being idle for a couple of decades, the 59-year-old Port Harcourt Refinery suddenly resumed operations. With an initial production capacity of 60,000 barrels per day, this marks a major step in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. How quickly will this impact fuel supply and stabilize the domestic market? The National Bureau of Sta…

1
The Week Ahead - Give Thanks For 23:46

24d ago23:46

23:46

Trump’s tariff announcements have started to move markets. We discuss how to interpret the latest US political developments and provide a preview of this week’s all important labour market data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is set to meet and may offer some dovish guidance. While in Europe, we preview the PMIs and Swiss inflation data. Chapte…

1
Escalation And Endgame 18:08

27d ago18:08

18:08

U.S. permission for Ukrainian strikes deeper in Russian territory. A new Russian nuclear doctrine and a ballistic missile attack. Olga Oliker of the Crisis Group joins the host to discuss what the rush of recent developments could mean for the war in Ukraine.Από τον Steve Gutterman

1
Wave of change 36:54

1M ago36:54

36:54

On November 21, Simon Ekpa, a dual citizen of Nigeria and Finland and self-proclaimed IPOB leader, was arrested in Finland on terrorism-related charges. Accused of using social media to incite violence in Nigeria, his arrest highlights the impact of online rhetoric. How will this affect separatist activities in southeastern Nigeria? Meanwhile, Nige…

1
The Week Ahead - Back Towards Normal? 14:01

1M ago14:01

14:01

Inflation and policy rates are returning towards normal in many countries. This week our focus turns back towards normal market drivers. We discuss core inflation in the US and the latest set of Fed meeting minutes. Across Europe, we have a number of central bank speakers, key inflation and growth readings to watch out for, as well as Tokyo inflati…

1
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook 11:17

1M ago11:17

11:17

I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the components of demand, that is to say, consumption, investment, trade and government spending. This gives you an initial projection of real GDP growth. You then feed this into labor market equations, alo…

1
Whiplash 32:15

1M ago32:15

32:15

We start with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Nigeria, the first by an Indian PM in 17 years. With over $27 billion in Indian investments in Nigeria, what is the potential to expand trade and cooperation? Will this historic visit deepen Nigeria-India ties? Next, Nigeria’s economic woes are mounting. Manufacturers report ₦1.2…

1
The Week Ahead - Global Aftershocks 21:49

1M ago21:49

21:49

In last week’s podcast we focused on the US and China following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections. This week we continue to discuss the implications of Trump 2.0 on other parts of the globe. Also on deck next week are US housing starts data, CPI prints in the UK and Japan, as well as Bank Indonesia likely again pausing amid extern…

1
The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep 12:37

1M ago12:37

12:37

The most urgent task facing investors in the wake of the 2024 elections is figuring out how much of the Trump agenda, as broadly outlined on the campaign trail, will be put into effect. A full and literal implementation across taxes, trade and immigration could have unwelcome consequences for the economy in both the short and long run. A more parti…

1
Elections, War, And Sabotage 26:38

1M ago26:38

26:38

What does Donald Trump's election mean for the war in Ukraine? Author and analyst Mark Galeotti joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss the ramifications of the U.S. vote and examine Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe.Από τον Steve Gutterman

1
On a financial edge 33:00

1M ago33:00

33:00

We begin in Southern Africa, where Botswana is undergoing a historic political shift. After 58 years of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) rule, the country has elected opposition candidate Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) as its new president. What are the implications of his victory for Botswana's future? What are the broader po…

1
The Week Ahead – Trump 2.0 19:03

2M ago19:03

19:03

Following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential elections, we outline the new policy outlook and what we think it means for the global economy and markets. We also discuss the National People’s Congress in China, with the policy decisions there likely to shape investors’ perceptions of both the outlook in China but also the broader impact on ri…

1
In the balance 30:06

2M ago30:06

30:06

We begin in Ghana, where Islamist militants from Burkina Faso are allegedly using northern Ghana for supplies and medical support, despite denials from Ghanaian authorities. Is Ghana at risk of becoming a safe haven for insurgents? How might this impact regional security? In Nigeria, terrorists have reportedly overtaken the Nagwamase Military Canto…

1
Week Ahead – Crunch Time 18:41

2M ago18:41

18:41

It’s been a busy past week with European Q3 GDP data and an expansionary UK budget, which led to a rise in European and UK bond yields. We also saw China PMI data print a tiny bit better and a pretty solid Q3 GDP growth report in the US. Over the coming week, it’s crunch time in the US with the election finally upon us. We discuss how markets may r…

1
Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion 7:59

2M ago7:59

7:59

The last few weeks have seen spectacular weather in New England, with warm temperatures and blue skies almost every day. By now, we would normally have stored the back-yard furniture inside to prevent it getting ruined over the winter. But instead, on weekend afternoons, Sari and I drowsily read our books in the sunshine with the still-loud chirpin…

1
Hard-pressed 22:04

2M ago22:04

22:04

Nigeria's government has proposed a 5% excise duty on telecom services, gaming, and betting as part of a new tax reform bill. How will this new tax burden affect consumers and businesses, and what could it mean for Nigeria’s digital economy? Next, the Dangote Refinery missed its petrol supply targets, delivering only 148 million litres instead of 5…

1
The Week Ahead - Buckle Up 19:17

2M ago19:17

19:17

This week we witnessed some pretty material moves in markets. There was a rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada and the theme of growth exceptionalism in the US, combined with communication from various Fed officials, has led the market to continue to unwind some of its prior aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. As we look ahead to the com…

1
'Distraction Dividend': Moscow's Aims And Actions In The Middle East 37:11

2M ago37:11

37:11

As it focuses on its war against Ukraine, Russia is also seeking to leverage violence in the Middle East to improve its global standing and condemn the West. The Kremlin is reaping rewards, but it also faces risks posed by its footprint in the volatile region. Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies…

1
Mixed signals 27:46

2M ago27:46

27:46

We begin in Northern Nigeria, where less than a month after Defence Minister Bello Matawalle faced accusations of sponsoring banditry, Bauchi South Senatorial District lawmaker Shehu Umar Buba is facing similar allegations. Though the Muslim Rights Concern has refuted these allegations, how will these accusations affect the lawmaker’s political sta…

1
The Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, UK Public Sector Borrowing and Tokyo CPI 13:35

2M ago13:35

13:35

In this episode, we discuss the upcoming US elections, and how US economic sentiment has been holding up in the second half of the year. In Europe, the focus next week will be on flash PMIs, especially after the ECB noted that they have seen downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Could UK public sector borrowing numbers change the g…

1
Perception And Reality In The War Against Ukraine 24:45

2M ago24:45

24:45

As Moscow's forces press forward and Ukraine holds onto part of Russia's Kursk region, there are new "mutterings" in the West about the prospects for an end to the fighting. Ruth Deyermond, senior lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss the situation on the battlefield and the latest…

1
The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates 11:22

2M ago11:22

11:22

Growing up in Dublin, I had a well-earned reputation as a child of very healthy appetite. At birthday parties, I’d always make sure, at the outset, to get my share of any cocktail sausages, cucumber sandwiches or Rice Krispie treats going around. When it came time for cake and ice cream, I made sure my plate was amply stocked. And I know my mother …

1
Fighting the Godfathers 30:44

2M ago30:44

30:44

First, we head over to Kenya, where Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua faces impeachment over serious allegations, including self-enrichment and inciting ethnic hatred. Is a feud with President Ruto now out in the open? How will this reshape the future of leadership in the country? What will be the effect on the region? Then, we come to Nigeria to d…

1
The Week Ahead - More or Less? 16:17

2M ago16:17

16:17

Central banks remain very much in focus over the coming week, with policy meetings in Europe and across Asia. We’re expecting rate cuts from two of those and the theme of divergence, based on local dynamics, seems very much in play. Some central banks look set to deliver more easing than perhaps would have been expected only a month ago, but some a…

1
Four Banks and the Dollar 11:44

3M ago11:44

11:44

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will publish international trade data for August. The numbers will, undoubtedly, show a deficit – the U.S. has run a trade deficit every year since 1975. This, in turn, implies that the U.S. dollar exchange rate is too high – we buy everyone else’s stuff because it’s cheap; they don’t want to buy ours because it’…

1
Torrents 38:06

3M ago38:06

38:06

In today’s episode, we discuss SBM's Health Preparedness Index for 2024—a yearly report that looks at the state of the healthcare infrastructure across Nigeria. Next, we explore the alarming findings from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which reveals that as of June 2024, the federal government is owed a staggering $6.071…

1
The Week Ahead – The Rate Cut Cycle Is Heating Up 14:38

3M ago14:38

14:38

What we have seen so far this week is markets buoyed by recent announcements regarding China policy stimulus but then troubled by developments in the middle east. Coming up, we expect rate cuts in India, Korea and New Zealand next week, and from the ECB soon after. We are recording this podcast ahead of US Payrolls data which has become an increasi…

1
The Investment Implications of the Wealth Surge 8:49

3M ago8:49

8:49

I have a habit, or so my wife tells me, of staring intently, for minutes at a time, into an open refrigerator, in search of one particular item. When she can no longer stand it, or when the binging of the refrigerator alarm informs the world that its contents are now thawing, she gently asks me what I am looking for and points it out, sitting, as i…

1
Zelenskiy's Trip, Putin's Threat 29:16

3M ago29:16

29:16

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy took his "victory plan" to Biden, Harris, and Trump in a U.S. visit that also included UN speeches. In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued yet another nuclear threat. Analyst and author Mark Galeotti joins host Steve Gutterman to discuss what it all means for the war in Ukraine.…

1
Fight or flight 35:40

3M ago35:40

35:40

First we turn our attention to the Central Bank of Nigeria, which has made headlines by raising its Monetary Policy Rate for the fifth time this year. Next, we’ll discuss Coca-Cola Nigeria Limited and its bottler, Nigeria Bottling Company, which has unveiled a plan to inject $1 billion into the Nigerian economy over the next five years. And finally…

1
The Week Ahead: US NFP, Euro Area Inflation and China PMIs 14:02

3M ago14:02

14:02

As we celebrate our 200th episode, we have a big week coming up in the US with the labour market report. In Europe, the most important data next week is euro area flash inflation, and we discuss whether inflation data may edge the ECB closer to an October rate cut. In Asia, the focus is on China's PMIs and Japanese industrial production. Chapters: …

1
The Investment Implications of a $769,900,000,000 Mistake 6:20

3M ago6:20

6:20

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, commonly known as the BEA, will release revised data on the national income and product accounts going back to the start of 2019. This is an annual process, usually only mildly interesting to economists and ignored by everyone else. However, this year it’s more important since it could help clarify the …

1
Birth pangs 33:30

3M ago33:30

33:30

This week, we look first at the NNPC's revelation that petrol prices will vary across the country—ranging from ₦950 ($0.57) in Lagos to as high as ₦1,019 ($0.62) in Borno—depending on logistics costs. Then, the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) has alerted Nigerians about potential flooding from the regulated water releases at Cameroon’s…

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