Economist and "Noahpinion" writer Noah Smith and investor Erik Torenberg make sense of what’s happening in the news, technology, business, and beyond, through the lens of economics. Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable ...
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Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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See the world through the eyes of society's greatest rule-breakers. The "Live Players" podcast charts the key individuals shaping our future from first principles across multiple domains: business, politics, philanthropy, and broadcasting from the digital town square Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today's most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You'll come away with ...
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E137: AI Safety vs Speed: Helen Toner Discusses OpenAI Board Experience, Regulatory Approaches, and Military AI [The Cognitive Revolution]
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1:23:35This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, …
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E71: Risk Taking, Contrarianism, and Growth [Byrne on Interintellect]
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1:39:33In this episode, Byrne Hobart joined Matjaž Leonardis in Austin for an Interintellect salon — a platform for 21st-century intellectual discourse—to discuss his new book Boom: Bubbles at the End of Stagnation, exploring how technological advancements, market paradoxes, and historical and modern financial bubbles — from the Manhattan Project to crypt…
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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore topics ranging from the futuristic themes of Black Mirror and the societal impact of technology to a critical analysis of Trump’s de-industrializing tariff policies versus Biden’s growth-focused subsidies, while also examining libertarianism’s influence on American politics and the cultural shifts it…
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E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart
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1:05:37In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in t…
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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Trump administration’s trade policies, their impact on U.S. manufacturing and investment, discussing strategies to counter China’s influence through multi-country trade blocs and industrial policy, and examining currency dynamics, economic default risks, and the complexities of global trade. RECO…
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E70: OpenAI’s Open Source Strategy, Volatility & Tariffs, and Automation’s Consequences w/ Byrne Hobart
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1:06:31This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore how technological advancements, policy shifts like Trump's tariffs and U.S. industrial policy, the re-industrialization of America, the influence of institutions like Harvard, the evolving role of the U.S. dollar, and the rise of OpenAI are reshaping global markets, businesses, and the future of ar…
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E135: The Problem With Reserve Currencies and Switching to Crypto w/ Lyn Alden [From the Archives]
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1:01:19This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg’s 2024 interview with Lyn Alden. Lyn discusses her book 'Broken Money', the impact of the global reserve currency, inflation, interest rates, and provides advice for navigating an uncertain economic future. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/ex…
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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the global repercussions of Trump’s broad tariff policies, critique misconceptions about trade deficits, and explore the economic fallout and potential policy responses. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society…
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Today on Upstream, Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' exploring the decline of new atheism, the intellectual defense of institutional religion, and the intersection between traditional Christianity, Silicon Valley, and modern materialism. This episode originally aired on Moment of …
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Today on Upstream, we’re releasing a 2024 conversation between Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja. They discuss China's approach to energy security, exploring why China isn't pursuing energy independence despite significant oil production capability and the potential for further development. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication:…
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E69: Good vs Bad Bubbles, Stagnation, and Bitcoin [Byrne on Bankless]
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1:45:48In this episode of The Riff, we are releasing a conversation Byrne Hobart had on the Bankless podcast about Byrne's book Bitcoin, exploring the provocative idea that speculative Bubbles—while sometimes destructive—can be powerful drivers of innovation, with examples from history and present-day trends like AI and crypto, ultimately highlighting the…
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Today on Upstream, we’re sharing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on April 1, 2025). Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the shifting dynamics of global trade between China and the US, the potential for AI to replace senior rather than junior roles in the workplace, and the economic structure of live entertainment markets like StubHub. …
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E131: Abundance Agenda, The New Right, and 2008 Retrospective w/ Noah Smith
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1:09:57Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008. This epis…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological change on global trade, AI’s disruption of senior roles, the debate over AI-generated art, and market dynamics—particularly in live entertainment ticketing—offering a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our qu…
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The New Left vs The New Right
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1:09:10This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the rise of the 'abundance' ideology among Democrats, assess Obama's economic legacy, and analyze the New Right's evolving influence, offering a broad perspective on shifting political and economic discourse. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith …
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E130: Elon Musk’s Network Effects and Checking in on Chinese AI w/ Byrne Hobart
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1:02:20This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambition…
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E129: Dark Triad, Romantic Partner Selection, and Dating Advice w/ Rob Henderson
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1:05:20Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews author Rob Henderson about modern romance, discussing evolutionary psychology, the attraction to dark triad men, dating apps, and practical advice for men seeking romantic partners. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our s…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore Donald Trump Jr.'s financial leverage of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's shift toward AI existential risks, Elon Musk's strategic decisions with Twitter, potential U.S. recessions, political party shifts, China's AI policy, and the broader impact of these developments on Wall Street and Main St…
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Abundance Debate, Sex Politics, and Left vs Right Economic Populism
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1:01:10This week, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore Japan’s economic and societal structure—covering urban zoning, housing policy, and government efficiency—before critiquing Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, advocating for balanced market dynamics and governance, and discussing broader socio-political themes like right-wing ideologies, gende…
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E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith
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Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our sh…
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Today on Upstream, we’re airing Erik Torenberg’s conversation with Jon Askonas. They explore the emerging coalition between MAGA supporters and Silicon Valley tech leaders, examines the underlying political realignment, the tensions and fault lines within this coalition, and the potential future conflicts surrounding issues like immigration and tra…
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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump’s policies, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending’s effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith’s upcoming book, W…
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E126: Data Center Economics and AI Energy Requirements w/ Patrick McKenzie and Azeem Azhar
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1:17:05Today on Upstream, we’re releasing Patrick MacKenzie's interview with Azeem Azhar which originally aired in February 2025 on Complex Systems. They discuss the economics and infrastructure of data centers, comparing historical infrastructure rollouts to modern AI-driven data center needs, and explore the implications of exponential power demands, in…
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E125: Palantir’s Politics, Elon’s Approach to DOGE, and AI’s Effects on Writing w/ Byrne Hobart
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Today on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into the wide-ranging effects of technological change on media and society. They cover the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. This episode originally aired on The Riff (March 11,…
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Making Sense of America's Tariff Chaos
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1:04:18This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the chaos caused by Trump's trade policies, tariffs' effects on the U.S. economy, potential recession risks, economic isolationism, policy uncertainty, investment impacts, and the broader cultural and societal shifts in America, including the decline of Christianity, the rise of wokeness, and communi…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the effects of technological change on media and society, covering topics such as the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey …
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E124: How to Have A Philosophical Marriage w/ Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks
1:12:09
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1:12:09Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode from Modern Relationships which originally aired on February 28, 2025 where Erik Torenberg interviews philosophy professors Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks about their unconventional marriage, the role of philosophy in their relationship, the impact of their public profile, and how they balance personal…
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In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competiti…
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Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the limitations of populist politics, the difficulty populists face in effecting change despite electoral wins, and the influence of digital democracy on modern governance. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking ou…
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In this Upstream episode, Erik Torenberg sits down with military historian Victor Davis Hanson. They discuss the future of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the evolution of the American left, and Donald Trump's potential future legacy. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape …
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Richard Hanania & Noah Smith: Making Sense of Trump, Elon, and Global Politics
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1:17:17This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th, recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republi…
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In this episode of Upstream, we’re releasing Erik Torenberg’s interview from 2023 with Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired Magazine, discussing Kevin’s new advice book, the impact of gratitude, and how technology, especially AI, interacts with and shapes human existence and culture. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publi…
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Elon calls Noah a Liar, Inflation, and Changes Democrats Need to Make
1:02:26
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1:02:26This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss three key areas where Democrats need to rethink their strategy: embracing anti-inflation policies similar to the Clinton era, focusing on genuine threats to democracy rather than partisan hobby horses, and abandoning progressive language policing that alienates voters. Noah also talks about how Elon M…
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E65: Bill Gates’s Persona, Against Copying Berkshire Hathaway, and Making the Economy More Like Chipotle
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1:01:15This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg examine why Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway can't be successfully replicated today, analyze Bill Gates's public versus private persona, and consider how economic growth manifests as "premium mediocre" options like Chipotle. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly…
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E120: Why Europe Matters for America’s Future w/ Samo Burja
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1:00:10This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the widespread interest in U.S. politics and its global influence, particularly in Western and European countries, the internet's role in synchronizing political and cultural norms, and potential changes in European political landscapes influenced by American ideologies and media. — 📰 Be …
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In this episode of Live Players, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss the global influence of U.S. politics on Western countries, the persistence of Western civilization as a political unit, the synchronization of political interests via the internet, and the potential for significant right-wing and free speech shifts in Europe given increased Ame…
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E119: Free Trade, AI Integration, and Shopify Q4 Results w/ Shopify President Harley Finkelstein
58:43
Erik Torenberg interviews Harley Finkelstein, president of Shopify, discussing tariffs, political shifts, Shopify's earnings, and the evolution of entrepreneurship. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/Turp…
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In this episode, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss how Ukraine has proven surprisingly resilient throughout the war by maintaining its economy and developing significant domestic drone manufacturing capabilities. He argues that "Europe is not toothless" despite America's shifting role, detailing how Europe collectively has greater manufacturing…
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E64: US vs China’s Strategies, Uber’s Growth Model, AI Supply Chains
1:03:04
1:03:04
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1:03:04This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss technological inflection points and examine how legal frameworks mask continued globalization despite apparent retrenchment, explores US-China dynamics, analyzes AI industry structure and emerging models, and considers Uber's strategic positioning against autonomous vehicles. --- 🙏 Help shape our s…
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E118: Ending Woke, Why Elon Wins, and A Return to Innovation w/ Marc Andreessen [Moment of Zen repost]
1:48:29
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1:48:29Marc Andreessen and Erik Torenberg discuss the ongoing political and cultural shift in America, covering topics such as preference falsification, the role of DEI in tech and other sectors, the influence of group chats, and the emerging dynamic in politics with highly capable appointments in the new administration. — 📰Be notified early when Turpenti…
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How the Macro, Tariffs and DOGE will Impact your Bank Account | Noah Smith on How To Money
1:03:04
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1:03:04This week, we’re bringing you an episode from the How to Money podcast, hosted by Joel Larsgaard and Matt Altmix, with special guest Noah Smith. Together, they dive into a range of topics, including the impact of tariffs, Substack’s revolutionary media model, and Noah’s unique economic philosophy. Tune in for insights on the escalating national deb…
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E117: The Future of Martian & Interplanetary Societies w/ Samo Burja
1:01:25
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1:01:25This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the economic, political, and cultural implications of colonizing Mars and the Moon, discussing space treaties, potential Martian and Earth societal divergence, and the technological advancements driving humanity's future as a multi-planetary species. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine'…
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Predicting Humanity’s Interplanetary Future
1:00:27
1:00:27
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1:00:27Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss the future of space colonization, touching on the implications of Mars and lunar settlements, the technological advancements driving space exploration, and how multi-planetary life might reshape human cultures, geopolitical dynamics, and economic structures. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publ…
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This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg talk about DOGE, Elon Musk's initiative to reform government spending, and explore why it might be more about ideology than efficiency. Noah talks about how he would fix the US debt beyond simply cutting waste. They also cover the future of major programs like Medicaid ($804B/year), the trade-offs between in…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological advancements, particularly OpenAI's research, Elon Musk’s $97 billion offer to acquire its controlling nonprofit, and the implications for business, jobs, regulation, and Musk's strategies with X and Doja. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick list…
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E116: Stuck Academia, US vs China, and Why Startups Work
1:03:43
1:03:43
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1:03:43Today, we're re-releasing an episode from 2023 where Erik Torenberg sits down with physicist and startup founder Steve Hsu on topics including the ideological shift in academia, the impact of AI on labor, China's technological advancements and geopolitical position, and the global fertility decline. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new…
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This week, Noah Smith and Stripe CEO Patrick Collison recorded a live conversation on Substack covering topics such as American technological leadership, global competition, industrial policy, foreign direct investment, post-financial crisis productivity trends, US financial system advantages, progressive policies, the middle class, tariffs, immigr…
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E115: New Tariff Implications, DeepSeek and Open Source Analysis, and Meta’s Big Bets w/ Byrne Hobart
1:10:53
1:10:53
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1:10:53Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the implications of recent tariffs, the impact of AI advancements like DeepSeek, Meta's investments in VR and AI, stock market dynamics, and differing perspectives on open-source AI models. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape ou…
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Understanding US-China Relations Right Now with Nathan Labenz
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1:05:19In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real c…
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E62: Trump’s Tariffs, Open Source AI Models, and The Future of VR
1:09:29
1:09:29
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1:09:29This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the impact of technological advancements on markets and businesses, covering topics like global trade tariffs, political populism, AI's evolving role, open-source vs. proprietary models, stock market trends, and Meta’s investments in the metaverse and AR. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our qui…
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