Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions? - Joel Smith

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Why Do We Make So Many Wrong Conclusions?

Heuristics - Instinctual Conclusions
Prioritizes Efficiency before Certainty

1. Binary Based Conclusions

· Black & White, True or False, Yes or No

· If it's what I see, it must be

· Based on subjective observation

· Downside - Not everything is as it seems, most things don’t fall into extremes,

2. Convenience Based Conclusions

· Bias Alignment fits with what you already want to believe.

· Does it agree with my presuppositions?

· Based on subjective opinion.

· Downside - Lacks objectivity, skewes context.

3. Conditional Based Conclusions

· Answer Depends on clarification of question.

· "It Depends", If / Then statements.

· Based on contingency outcome.

· Downside - Can be used for control or manipulation

Critical Thinking - Mindful Conclusions
Prioritizes Certainty over Efficiency

4. Investigative Based Conclusions.

· Multiple possible outcomes. There is a truth to find.

· Where Does the evidence lead?

· Based on process of elimination.

· Downside - Time consuming, may never resolve

5. Causational Based Conclusions

· Search for the Root Cause, Logic / Reason.

· The Why?, Motivation? Error?

· Based on the process of determination.

· Downside - Proof is hard to find, Leads to speculations

6. Probability Based Conclusions

· Variable unprovable outcomes.

· Statistical Likelihood, Odds / Trends

· Based on research and analysis.

· Info can be manipulated & misused

Conclusion – We all need to be using the right tool to have the best chance at the best conclusion.

Joe and Joel are professional business coaches. We would love to servce you. Check out our services!
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